We are on the eve of the American election, and security seems to be dominating the debates in this final stretch of the race. A lot of pundits are dubbing the new
Osama Bin Laden tape as the October suprise that will sway voters. Both Senator Kerry and President Bush are using the tape to further their goals as expected. This
article provides a more comprehensive analysis than what I have below.
From the pro-Kerry camp, they're using the tape as leverage for the the following points:
- Bush has failed to capture/kill Bin Laden because Bush took his attention off Afghanistan, and went to Iraq.
- Bush failed to capture Bin Laden because he outsourced the job to Afghan warlords and the Pakistani intelligence service who's hunting him now.
From the pro-Bush camp, they make the following point:
- The war on terror is the president's strongest issue, remember 9/11.
- Notice we haven't had a terrorist attack on American soil in the last 3 years.
In my view, I think Senator Kerry is wrong about Bush letting Bin Laden escape in Afghanistan. Recently Retired General Tommy Franks, who ran the war in Afghanistan refuted Senator Kerry's assertion about Bush letting Osama get away. From this
article, it states "Mr. Kerry's version of the battle of Tora Bora is revisionist history." I'm going to the word of a general that was on the ground as opposed to some Senator who was thousands of miles away from the front line, trying to score political points.
As for Bush's assertion that there have been no terrorist attacks on the homeland since 9/11, that is true. Security is one of those tricky things where you have to be diligent, and you ALWAYS have to get it right. For the terrorists ... they only have to get it right once.
However, I don't think Bin Laden's dumb enough to launch a terrorist attack on America so close to an election. Early this year,
a terrorist attack in Spain had a massive political influence that brought down the government during elections. The population in general blamed the terrorist attack on their government's involvement in helping the Americans invade Iraq. They felt the government's meddling brought this attack upon the country.
I don't think another terrorist attack would have the same affect in America. I think another 9/11 would probably reunite the country which would be bad news to the terrorists, as America is currently a divided country. When Americans get attacked, they will respond in kind. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour awoke the slumbering giant America, and brought her into World War 2. America's goal: unconditional surrender from Japan.
An attack would unite America as well. Remember on September 11th, 2001 how everyone came together to back their president. Remember how Bush's approval rating was at
90% in the aftermath of 9/11. Whether you're pro-Bush or anti-Bush, you have to admit that Bush did a great job during 9/11 and he will go down in history following those events, for better or for worse.
In either case, my personal opinion is that the Bin Laden tape probably helped Bush. That was my initial knee jerk reaction as it reminded me of 9/11 all over again, and how we have to get this guy! Yes capturing or killing him would be great, but it'd be more of a symbolic victory than an actual victory in the war on terror. One has to realize that terrorist groups are distributed networks, and just because you take out the head doesn't cripple the organization.
Just my two Canadian cents...
This will probably provoke some strong responses from some of my viewers ... please keep it civil.